<\/p>\n
Eryurt, T\u00fcrkiye’nin n\u00fcfus projeksiyonuna ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel durumu AA muhabirine de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi N\u00fcfus Et\u00fctleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc ve ba\u015fka kurumlar\u0131n n\u00fcfus projeksiyona ili\u015fkin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fcklerini ancak, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in resmi n\u00fcfus projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatan Eryurt, “Yeni n\u00fcfus projeksiyonu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 yak\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131lacak ama en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2018-2080 d\u00f6nemi projeksiyon sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusunun 2050 itibar\u0131 ile 104 milyonu, 2080 itibar\u0131 ile de 107 milyonu a\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletlerin (BM) t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in n\u00fcfus projeksiyonu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Eryurt, BM’nin T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfus projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2050 itibar\u0131yla \u00fclke n\u00fcfusunun 96 milyona yakla\u015fmas\u0131, sonras\u0131nda azalmaya ba\u015flayarak 2100’de 82 milyona d\u00fc\u015fmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Hem T\u00dc\u0130K hem BM projeksiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 senaryolar oldu\u011funu kaydeden Eryurt, T\u00fcrkiye’nin n\u00fcfusunun 100 milyon olmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminin \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcredir konu\u015fuldu\u011funu belirtti. Eryurt, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n
“T\u00dc\u0130K’in projeksiyon sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak ki\u015fisel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc soracak olursan\u0131z, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir n\u00fcfusa i\u015faret eden BM projeksiyonunda bile toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131, yani kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 1,88 ve T\u00dc\u0130K’in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 do\u011fum istatistiklerine g\u00f6re ise toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 1,62. Aileler art\u0131k \u00e7ok daha az \u00e7ocuk sahibi olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. Do\u011furganl\u0131k seviyesi d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen, do\u011furganl\u0131k d\u00fczeyinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde n\u00fcfusa dahil olan geni\u015f bir ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n bug\u00fcn \u00fcreme \u00e7a\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, teknik tabiri ile n\u00fcfus momentumu nedeniyle n\u00fcfusumuz artmaya devam ediyor. Ama o etki de yava\u015f yava\u015f ortadan kalk\u0131yor. T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re y\u0131ll\u0131k n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda binde 12,7 iken, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda binde 7,1 olmu\u015f durumda. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu e\u011filimin devam etmesi durumunda g\u00f6\u00e7 nedeniyle n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarsak, do\u011fal art\u0131\u015f dinamikleri ile T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusunun 100 milyona ula\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.”<\/p>\n
Prof. Dr. Eryurt, 6 \u015eubat’taki Kahramanmara\u015f merkezli depremden, ge\u00e7ici koruma kapsam\u0131ndaki Suriyeli s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131lar da dahil edildi\u011finde yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir b\u00f6lgenin etkilendi\u011fini belirterek, “Deprem b\u00f6lgesi, T\u00fcrkiye ortalamas\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7ocuk ve gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun daha y\u00fcksek oranda oldu\u011fu bir b\u00f6lge. Depremin \u00f6nemli demografik etkileri olma potansiyeli var. Depremin tek sonucu g\u00f6\u00e7 olmayacakt\u0131r. Evlenme ve do\u011furganl\u0131k davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda da de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r.” dedi.<\/p>\n
Eryurt, depremin bozucu etkilerine \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretebilmek i\u00e7in ilgili kamu kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n verilerini kamuoyu ve ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131larla payla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle bu d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu anlatt\u0131. S\u00fcrecin planl\u0131 hareket etmeyi gerektirdi\u011fine dikkati \u00e7eken Eryurt, ihtiya\u00e7 analizi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ve m\u00fcdahale programlar\u0131n\u0131n periyodik olarak g\u00fcncellenmesi ve ona g\u00f6re hareket edilmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’de n\u00fcfusun h\u0131zla ya\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Eryurt, “Ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus derken, 65 ya\u015f ve \u00fczeri n\u00fcfusu kastediyoruz. N\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131 kavram\u0131yla da toplam n\u00fcfus i\u00e7erisinde ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun pay\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 e\u011filimini ifade ediyoruz.” dedi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn, gen\u00e7, eri\u015fkin, ya\u015fl\u0131 ve \u00e7ok ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus belirlemedeki parametrelerinden de bahseden Prof. Dr. Eryurt, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n
“DS\u00d6, 65 ya\u015f ve \u00fczerindeki ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfus i\u00e7erisindeki oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4’ten az olmas\u0131 durumunda o toplumu ‘gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus’ olarak, y\u00fczde 4-7 aras\u0131nda olmas\u0131 durumunda ‘eri\u015fkin n\u00fcfus’ olarak, y\u00fczde 8-10 aras\u0131nda olmas\u0131 durumunda ‘ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus’ olarak, y\u00fczde 10’un \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 durumunda ise ‘\u00e7ok ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus’ olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. T\u00dc\u0130K’in en son a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 Adrese Dayal\u0131 N\u00fcfus Kay\u0131t Sistemi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9,9, yani ‘\u00e7ok ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus’ olman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011findeyiz. Hatta bu oran\u0131n 2022 sonuna ait oldu\u011funu, \u015fimdi ise 2023’\u00fcn ortas\u0131nda oldu\u011fumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek art\u0131k y\u00fczde 10’u ge\u00e7ti\u011fimizi ve \u00e7ok ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusa sahip oldu\u011fumuzu s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r.”<\/p>\n
Eryurt, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde uzun d\u00f6neme yay\u0131lan ya\u015flanma s\u00fcrecinin T\u00fcrkiye’de \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Fransa’da ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7’den y\u00fczde 14’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n 115 y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini i\u015faret eden Eryurt, “T\u00fcrkiye’de ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7’den y\u00fczde 14’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n 27 y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’de n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanma h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 daha iyi anlayabilmek i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmenin faydal\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Eryurt, “1950 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131 d\u00fcnyada y\u00fczde 5,1, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde y\u00fczde 7,7, T\u00fcrkiye’de ise y\u00fczde 3,8. BM projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’de ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 21 ile d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 5 puan \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131, 2100’de y\u00fczde 33,9 ile geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131n\u0131 da ge\u00e7mesi bekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ya\u015flan\u0131yor.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Eryurt, bir yandan do\u011furganl\u0131k seviyesinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, di\u011fer taraftan ortalama ya\u015fam s\u00fcresinin uzamas\u0131 nedeniyle gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfus i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131 azal\u0131rken, ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun pay\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7eken Eryurt, “N\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6rlerden birisi do\u011furganl\u0131k seviyesi. \u0130kinci fakt\u00f6r, ya\u015fam beklentisinin, insan \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fcn uzamas\u0131. Hem d\u00fcnyada hem de T\u00fcrkiye’de ya\u015fam s\u00fcresi \u00e7ok belirgin \u015fekilde uzam\u0131\u015f durumda. Di\u011fer bir fakt\u00f6r de do\u011fu\u015fta ya\u015fam beklentisi. 1950’li y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye’de 50 ya\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan do\u011fu\u015fta ya\u015fam beklentisi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde 78 ya\u015f seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.” bilgilerini verdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’de uzun s\u00fcredir iki \u00e7ocuk normunun hakim oldu\u011funu aktaran Eryurt, sosyoekonomik pek \u00e7ok geli\u015fmeyle beraber, \u00e7ocu\u011fun maliyetinin artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7iftleri tek \u00e7ocukla s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6neltti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’deki tek \u00e7ocuk y\u00f6neliminin al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olunmayan sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7eken Eryurt, \u015funlar\u0131 anlatt\u0131:<\/p>\n
“Bir s\u00fcredir T\u00fcrkiye’de tek \u00e7ocuk normu da belirgin bir \u015fekilde olu\u015fuyor. Bunu ideal \u00e7ocuk say\u0131lar\u0131nda da, \u00fcreme \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonuna gelmi\u015f 45-49 ya\u015f grubundaki kad\u0131nlar aras\u0131nda tek \u00e7ocuk sahibi olanlar\u0131n oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015ftan da g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Bu y\u00f6nelimin al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olur. En ba\u015fta n\u00fcfus azalmaya ba\u015flar ve yeni aile tipleri, hane halk\u0131 kompozisyonlar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r\u0131z. Art\u0131k, karde\u015fi olmayan, kuzeni olmayan, teyzesi, halas\u0131, amcas\u0131, day\u0131s\u0131 olmayan bireyler s\u00f6z konusu olmaya ba\u015flar.”<\/p>\n
Mehmet Ali Eryurt, d\u00fcnyada en uzun ya\u015fam s\u00fcresinin oldu\u011fu \u00fclkelerle en az oldu\u011fu \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda halen yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir fark oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya’da ortalama ya\u015fam s\u00fcresinin 84 y\u0131l oldu\u011funu, Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti ve Nijerya gibi baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde ise 55 y\u0131l ve alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Eryurt, “Kalk\u0131nma ve ya\u015fam s\u00fcresi aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131 var, \u00fclkelerin kalk\u0131nm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k d\u00fczeyindeki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar, e\u015fitsizlikler baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde do\u011fan insanlar\u0131n di\u011ferlerinden 30 y\u0131l daha az ya\u015famas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor. 8 milyar insan\u0131n refah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak, mutlu k\u0131lmak, e\u015fitsizlikleri gidermek gibi \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6rev var hepimizin \u00f6n\u00fcnde.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n