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Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131’n\u0131n (IEA) do\u011fal gaz piyasas\u0131ndaki 2022 geli\u015fmelerini ve 2023’e ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri i\u00e7eren Gaz Piyasas\u0131 2023 – 1. \u00c7eyrek Raporu yay\u0131mland\u0131. Rapora g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l k\u00fcresel do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimindeki y\u00fczde 1,6’l\u0131k azal\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, piyasadaki arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 devam etti.<\/p>\n
Enerji krizinin merkezindeki Avrupa’da ise do\u011fal gaz talebi 2022’de y\u00fczde 13 ile tarihteki en h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin enerji krizine kar\u015f\u0131 ald\u0131klar\u0131 acil \u00f6nlemler, sanayi \u00fcretimindeki daralma, t\u00fcketicilerin t\u00fcketimlerini k\u0131smas\u0131 ve \u0131l\u0131man hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Kuzey Amerika’n\u0131n do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimi ise y\u00fczde 4,4 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ABD’nin gaz t\u00fcketimindeki art\u0131\u015f, Kanada’da gaz santrallerinin ve sanayi t\u00fcketiminin y\u00fckselmesinden kaynakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Asya’n\u0131n do\u011fal gaz talebi ise \u00c7in’deki Kovid-19 k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ve \u0131l\u0131man hava \u015fartlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 2 geriledi. \u00c7in’in do\u011fal gaz talebi 2022’de y\u00fczde 1 azal\u0131rken, Japonya LNG ithalat\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 3 daralmaya ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck LNG ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 unvan\u0131n\u0131 korudu.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l LNG ticareti ise y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n etkisiyle t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re ikiye katlanarak 450 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Avrupa, Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 LNG ile ikame etmesi nedeniyle, k\u00fcresel LNG ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc oldu. Avrupa’n\u0131n gaz ithalat\u0131 2022’de y\u00fczde 63 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Rusya’n\u0131n Avrupa Birli\u011fi’ne (AB) do\u011fal gaz tedariki 2022’de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re yar\u0131dan fazla, yani 78 milyar metrek\u00fcp azald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa’da do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 ve Asya’da LNG fiyatlar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Avrupa’da fiyatlar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131na Rusya’dan gaz tedarikinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n LNG ithalat\u0131yla kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
IEA’ya g\u00f6re, do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 tarihi seviyeleri g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan son aylarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen, bu durum \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in’in LNG talebindeki art\u0131\u015fla de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011fal gaz ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in’in LNG talebinin Kovid-19 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 10 artmas\u0131 beklenirken, yine de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam etmesi ve genel ekonomik aktivitenin artmas\u0131 durumunda \u00c7in’in LNG gaz talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 35’i bulabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in’in gaz talebindeki muhtemel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda rekabetin k\u0131z\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ve bu yaz do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum \u00f6zellikle Avrupal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, k\u00fcresel gaz talebinin bu y\u0131l yatay seyretmesinin beklenmesine ra\u011fmen, Rusya’dan gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik belirsizlikler ve dalgal\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131n ekonomik etkileri nedeniyle, gaz piyasalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
IEA Enerji Piyasalar\u0131 ve G\u00fcvenli\u011fi Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Keisuke Sadamori, rapora ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n k\u00fcresel gaz piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir d\u00f6nem oldu\u011funu belirterek, “\u00d6zellikle \u0131l\u0131man k\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n ve talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupa’da fiyatlar \u015fu anda y\u00f6netilebilir seviyeye d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. \u00c7in, 2023’\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck bilinmezi. K\u00fcresel LNG talebinin Kovid-19 \u00f6ncesi seviyesine d\u00f6nmesi sadece uluslararas\u0131 piyasalardaki rekabeti k\u0131z\u0131\u015ft\u0131racak ve ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u015fekilde fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltecek.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131. <\/p>\n