\n<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumunca (T\u00dc\u0130K) a\u00e7\u0131klanan GSYH verilerine g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti. Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi y\u00fczde 3,9’dan 4’e, ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 7,7’den 7,8’e ve ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 7,5’ten 7,6’ya revize edildi.<\/p>\n
AA Finans’\u0131n anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistler, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 2,8 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
Beklentileri geride b\u0131rakan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye en \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 y\u00fczde 21,8’le finans ve sigorta faaliyetlerinden geldi. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye hizmet faaliyetleri y\u00fczde 11,7’lik katk\u0131 sa\u011flarken, gayrimenkul faaliyetleri y\u00fczde 4,3 ve sanayi y\u00fczde 3,3 destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Hanehalk\u0131 nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 2022’nin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 16,1, y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda ise 19,7 artarken, hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n GSYH i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 57,5 oldu.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde 9,1, ithalat\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 7,9 y\u00fckseldi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demeleri 2022’de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 82,7 artarken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demelerinin cari fiyatlarla Gayrisafi Katma De\u011fer i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 30,1’den y\u00fczde 26,5’e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Analistler, son veriler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki ivmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sinyalleri verdi\u011fini ancak bu verilerin deprem \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemi kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan gelecek d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in belirsizliklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
AA Finans Analisti ve Ekonomist Haluk B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki son g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ilk sinyallerin milli gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin deprem \u00f6ncesi i\u00e7 talep kaynakl\u0131 olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini ancak, depremin ilk \u00e7eyrekte ekonomik aktiviteye yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri bir s\u00fcre daha takip etmenin gerekli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l milli gelir toplam\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 905,5 milyar dolar ile 2014’ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe i\u015faret etti\u011fini ifade eden B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, “Takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi, 2022’nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3,5 artarken, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,9 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, t\u00fcketim y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH\u2019yi son \u00e7eyrekte in\u015faat, finans ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Harcamalar y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH verilerine g\u00f6re, son \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6zel ve kamu t\u00fcketimi ile yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumlu etkiledi\u011fini bildiren B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, net d\u0131\u015f talep ve stok azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, gayrisafi sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n makine-te\u00e7hizat aya\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckselmeye devam etti\u011fini belirterek, \u015fu ifadelere yer verdi:<\/p>\n
“\u0130n\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da daralma serisini sona erdirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bilindi\u011fi gibi, yeni GSYH serisinde yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6zel ve kamu ayr\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k in\u015faat ve makine-te\u00e7hizat ayr\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. S\u00f6z konusu \u00e7eyrekte in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,3 art\u0131\u015f ile \u00f6nceki be\u015f \u00e7eyrekte g\u00f6r\u00fclen daralma e\u011filimi sona ererken, makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 2,3 ile yava\u015flama g\u00f6sterse de art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini korudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olan makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 b\u00f6ylece son 13 \u00e7eyrektir \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda.”<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki son g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ilk sinyallerin milli gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin deprem \u00f6ncesi i\u00e7 talep kaynakl\u0131 olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dikkati \u00e7eken B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda imalat sanayi Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI), reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi (RKGE), t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksinde belirgin art\u0131\u015f, d\u0131\u015f talepte de toparlanma g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Hizmet ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6rleri g\u00fcven endeksleri ile kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131nda ise yava\u015flama oldu\u011funu kaydeden B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, “Ancak t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak 6 \u015eubat\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen deprem \u00f6ncesi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yordu. Depremin ilk \u00e7eyrekte ekonomik aktiviteye yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri bir s\u00fcre daha takip etmek gerekli olacak.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 d\u00fczeyinde olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini \u00fczerindeki risklerin deprem sonras\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu:<\/p>\n
“Milli gelir i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 9,3 olan deprem b\u00f6lgesinin ba\u015fta imalat sanayi olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlere olan katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u015fubattan itibaren ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve ne s\u00fcre azalaca\u011f\u0131 bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flaman\u0131n boyutu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacakt\u0131r. Marmara depreminin etkileri \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar milli gelirin maksimum 1 puan civar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde etkilenebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir.<\/p>\n
Ocak ay\u0131 verilerinde g\u00f6zlenen ekonomik aktivite h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131n yerini \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya b\u0131rakmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilecek ancak di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerde buradaki kay\u0131plar\u0131n telafi edilmesine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile sonraki \u00e7eyreklerde daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecektir. Bu do\u011frultuda, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 d\u00fczeyinde olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimiz \u00fczerinde risklerin \u015fu a\u015famada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.”<\/p>\n
Piri Reis \u00dcniversitesi Rekt\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Prof. Dr. Erhan Aslano\u011flu da, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131layarak \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin biraz \u00fczerinde gelse de y\u00fczde 5 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin lokomotifinin son y\u0131llarda oldu\u011fu gibi i\u00e7 taleple olmaya devam etti\u011fini belirten Aslano\u011flu, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00fczde 10,3 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc katk\u0131 vermi\u015f oldu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Aslano\u011flu, \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3,5, t\u00fcketim b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 16,1 oldu\u011funu kaydederek, “Y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme de y\u00fczde 5,6, t\u00fcketim b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 19,7 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00c7eyreklik bazda hafif art\u0131\u015f olsa bile y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda gerileme izliyoruz. D\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verdi\u011fi katk\u0131 negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.”<\/p>\n
Son \u00e7eyrekte ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,3 d\u00fc\u015ferken, ithalat\u0131n y\u00fczde 10,2 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7eken Aslano\u011flu, bu geli\u015fmenin artan d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k verilerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Aslano\u011flu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya yava\u015flama ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek, \u015funlar\u0131 ifade etti:<\/p>\n
“\u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler ocak ay\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tekrar toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu. \u00d6zellikle \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve EYT etkisini g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Maalesef ya\u015fanan deprem b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrekte a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam gelirden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay\u0131n y\u00fczde 30,1\u2019den y\u00fczde 26,5 seviyesine gerilemesi gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda bozulman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.”<\/p>\n