\n<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 11 \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydeden T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, b\u00f6ylece Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OECD) \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci, G20’de de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclke olmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/p>\n
AA Finans Analisti ve Ekonomist Haluk B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, \u00fcretim y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH’yi ilk \u00e7eyrekte hizmetler, in\u015faat ve finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin g\u00fcc\u00fcne ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergelerin zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini ifade eden B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, ”Takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,3 artarken, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3,8 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filiminin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.” dedi.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, harcamalar y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH verilerine g\u00f6re, ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6zel ve kamu t\u00fcketimi ile yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, net d\u0131\u015f talep ve stok azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Gayrisafi sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n makine-te\u00e7hizat aya\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckselmeye devam etti\u011fini, in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktaran B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, “S\u00f6z konusu \u00e7eyrekte in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1,3 art\u0131\u015f ile toparlanma e\u011filimi devam ederken, makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 8 ile h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olan makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, b\u00f6ylece son 14 \u00e7eyrektir \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda.” dedi.<\/p>\n
Haluk B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilk sinyallerin milli gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte i\u00e7 talep kaynakl\u0131 olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri \u00fczerindeki risklerin, 6 \u015eubat’ta meydana gelen ve 11 ili etkileyen deprem sonras\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirten B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n
“Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ortas\u0131nda yurt i\u00e7i talepte g\u00fc\u00e7lenme i\u015faretleri (kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar) devam ederken, d\u00fcnya genelinde PMI endeksleri toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek e\u015fik de\u011ferin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve d\u0131\u015f talep a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu sinyal vermi\u015ftir. Bu do\u011frultuda, depremin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00e7eyrekler baz\u0131nda etkiledi\u011fini (ilk \u00e7eyrek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, ikinci \u00e7eyrek yukar\u0131) ama b\u00fcy\u00fcme ana e\u011filimini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadede deprem kaynakl\u0131 bir miktar olumsuz etkilenme s\u00f6z konusu olsa da i\u00e7 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu durumu fazlas\u0131yla telafi etti\u011fine y\u00f6nelik i\u015faretler al\u0131nmaya devam edilmektedir. Bu do\u011frultuda, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 d\u00fczeyinde olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimiz \u00fczerinde risklerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde olmaya devam etti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.”<\/p>\n
Econs Kurucu Orta\u011f\u0131 ve Ekonomist Ferhat Y\u00fckselt\u00fcrk de “Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki y\u00fczde 4’l\u00fck beklenti, benim beklentime yak\u0131n seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.” ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kredi geni\u015flemesinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda olumlu ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f gibi durdu\u011funu belirten Y\u00fckselt\u00fcrk, depremin olumsuz etkilerine ra\u011fmen i\u00e7 talebin desteklenmesine y\u00f6nelik politikalar\u0131n bu noktada etkisini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana kayna\u011f\u0131 motoru olarak, hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Y\u00fckselt\u00fcrk, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu: <\/p>\n
“B\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonunda, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle 2. \u00e7eyre\u011fin geneline yay\u0131lan bir h\u0131zlanma g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Burada may\u0131s ay\u0131na dair veriler var. En az\u0131ndan may\u0131s\u0131n ilk 2 haftas\u0131na dair veriler var kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi taraf\u0131nda… Bu veriler, bize buradaki momentumun devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Fakat may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan sonra \u00f6zellikle haziran ba\u015f\u0131yla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda yava\u015flama ve so\u011fuma g\u00f6rebiliriz. Y\u0131l\u0131n genelinde ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fczde 3,5-4 band\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilmesi muhtemel gibi duruyor.”<\/p>\n