\n<\/p>\n
Rusya’n\u0131n enerji d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki konumunu kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak kaybetme ihtimaliyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu bu d\u00f6nemde, Avrupa’n\u0131n gaz tedarik g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler ise s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
AA muhabirinin, ara\u015ft\u0131rma kurulu\u015fu Zero Carbon Analytics verilerinden derledi\u011fi bilgilere g\u00f6re, Avrupa Birli\u011fi’nin (AB) Rusya’dan gaz ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 75 azald\u0131. Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) ithalat\u0131yla ikame eden AB \u00fclkelerinde, LNG kapasitesi k\u0131sa zamanda \u00f6nemli oranda geni\u015fledi.<\/p>\n
AB’nin do\u011fal gaz talebi 2022’nin ocak-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 10 azal\u0131rken, talebin 2030’a kadar y\u00fczde 43 azalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel do\u011fal gaz talebinin ise 2030’dan \u00f6nce pik yapaca\u011f\u0131 ve gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda elektrik talebindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 88’inin yenilenebilir kaynaklardan, sadece y\u00fczde 1’inin fosil yak\u0131tlardan kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kan do\u011fal gaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyatlar\u0131, elektrik maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 90’\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
AB ocak-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6neminde do\u011fal gaz ithalat\u0131na 252 milyar avro \u00f6derken, bu rakam ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 286 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Rekor fiyatlar, en b\u00fcy\u00fck LNG ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer alan Asya \u00fclkelerinin talebini de vurdu. Asya b\u00f6lgesinin LNG talebi 2022’de y\u00fczde 7 azal\u0131\u015fla son 7 y\u0131ldaki ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f nedeniyle Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin Rusya’ya uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ambargolar, \u00fclkenin \u00f6zellikle enerjideki ticari ortaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve ihracat destinasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirirken, ekonomisine de darbe vurdu.<\/p>\n
Rus ham petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine uygulanan ambargonun Rus ekonomisine g\u00fcnl\u00fck 280 milyon avroya mal oldu\u011fu hesaplan\u0131yor. Rusya’n\u0131n Ocak 2022-Ocak 2023 d\u00f6neminde petrol ve gazdan elde etti\u011fi gelir y\u00fczde 46 azald\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f nedeniyle y\u00fczde 59 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Rusya’n\u0131n kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ocak 2023’te 25 milyar dolar oldu.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol, sava\u015f\u0131n ilk y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131nda, Rusya’n\u0131n Avrupa’ya gaz tedarikinin sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 80 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Rusya’n\u0131n indirimli fiyat uygulamas\u0131 sayesinde k\u00fcresel piyasalara petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ise sadece k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 oranda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade eden Birol, “Rusya’n\u0131n gaz ve petrol gelirleri Ocak 2023’te 12 milyar dolar geriledi. Bu rakam ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 40 seviyesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f demek. Bu noktadan sonra Rusya’n\u0131n petrol ve gazdaki piyasa g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn daha da d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Rusya’n\u0131n k\u00fcresel gaz ticaretindeki pay\u0131 2021’deki y\u00fczde 25 seviyesinden 2023’te y\u00fczde 13’e gerilerken, AB gaz talebindeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 40’tan y\u00fczde 10’a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.” bilgisini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Birol, Rusya’n\u0131n petrol ve gaz \u00fcretimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra enerji d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki konumunu tamamen kaybetme ihtimaliyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu belirterek, “Bu y\u0131ldaki geli\u015fmelerin ilk \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 \u015fu ki Rusya enerji kart\u0131n\u0131 oynad\u0131 ve kazanmad\u0131. \u015eu anda sadece m\u00fc\u015fterilerini kaybetmiyor, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar nedeniyle kilit teknolojilere ve finansmana eri\u015fimini de kaybediyor.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u00dclkelerin enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Rus fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131na “temiz alternatif kaynaklar” buldu\u011funu belirten Birol, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n
“D\u00fcnyada 2022’de devreye al\u0131nan yenilenebilir enerji kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 25 artt\u0131. K\u00fcresel elektrikli ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u00fczde 60 y\u00fckseldi, enerji verimlili\u011fi ve \u00f6zellile Avrupa’da \u0131s\u0131 pompas\u0131 kurulumlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. N\u00fckleer ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe imza at\u0131yor. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa’da gaz ve petrol tedariki k\u0131r\u0131lgan durumda ve bir\u00e7ok belirsizlik mevcut. Rusya Avrupa’ya hala bir miktar gaz g\u00f6nderiyor. Bu ak\u0131\u015f tamamen kesilebilir ve piyasalarda yeni bask\u0131lar yaratabilir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck gaz ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in’in Kovid-19 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n da gaz talebine ve piyasalara etkisi olacak. Bu da \u00f6zellikle al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in zorluklar\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.”<\/p>\n
Veri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu TransitionZero Veri Analizleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Seb Kennedy Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’da ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n temiz enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederek, “Sava\u015ftan bu yana ge\u00e7en bir y\u0131lda d\u00fcnya \u00e7ok daha de\u011fi\u015fken bir yer haline geldi ve enerji piyasalar\u0131 bunun en iyi \u00f6rne\u011fi.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6receli istikrar\u0131n sadece ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama oldu\u011funu ve fiyatlarda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu aktaran Kennedy, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in’in LNG talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle AB’nin gelecek k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131 doldurmas\u0131n\u0131n 2022’ye g\u00f6re daha zor olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi. <\/p>\n
Kennedy, AB’nin r\u00fczgar, g\u00fcne\u015f ve batarya kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kararak ve ev yal\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 gibi gaz talebini azaltma giri\u015fimlerini h\u0131zland\u0131rarak ekonomik kazan\u00e7 elde etmesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. <\/p>\n