<\/p>\n
Yeni y\u00f6ntemle hesaplanan bulgulara g\u00f6re, Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 2020’de en a\u011f\u0131r \u015fekilde ge\u00e7iren \u00fclkeler s\u0131ras\u0131yla ABD, \u0130talya ve Almanya olurken T\u00fcrkiye, OECD \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda 7. s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi Sa\u011fl\u0131k Y\u00f6netimi b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde doktora \u00f6\u011frencisi ve Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sanayi ve teknoloji uzman\u0131 Tevfik Bulut ile Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi Sa\u011fl\u0131k Y\u00f6netimi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Sa\u011fl\u0131k Politikas\u0131 ve Ekonomisi Anabilim Dal\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prof. Dr. Mehmet Top taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen dalga boyu y\u00f6ntemi, \u0130ngiltere Kraliyet Halk Sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Derne\u011finin (The Royal Society for Public Health) 1888’den beri yay\u0131n hayat\u0131ndaki resmi bilimsel dergisi Public Health’te yay\u0131mlanarak bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131na duyuruldu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrk bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n bilimsel makalesine https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.puhe.2023.05.013 doi numaras\u0131ndan ula\u015f\u0131labiliyor. SSCI akademik indeksli olan dergi, halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan\u0131nda Q1 s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu y\u00f6ntemle Kovid-19 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere salg\u0131nlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hesaplanabiliyor. Dalga boyu modelinde dalga boyu uzunlu\u011fu salg\u0131n\u0131n etki alan\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma bulgular\u0131, dalga boyu uzunlu\u011fu ne kadar y\u00fcksekse salg\u0131n\u0131n etki alan\u0131n\u0131n ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn o kadar y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk versiyonu 2020’de Tevfik Bulut taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen dalga boyu y\u00f6nteminin son versiyonuyla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma daha da ileriye ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrk bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n makalesinde yeni y\u00f6nteme ili\u015fkin detayl\u0131 bilgiler yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6re, bir salg\u0131ndaki temel epidemiyolojik g\u00f6stergeler olan “\u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131”, “prevelans” ve “insidans” gibi veriler salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 hakk\u0131nda fikir verse de salg\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hakk\u0131nda bilgi vermiyordu. \u00d6rne\u011fin iki \u00fclkenin \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131 farkl\u0131 zaman dilimlerinde ayn\u0131 ise iki \u00fclkenin \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fit oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilirken bu durum salg\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve etki alan\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir fikir ortaya koymuyordu.<\/p>\n
Dalga boyu modeli bu sorunun \u00fcstesinden gelmek i\u00e7in tasarland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Salg\u0131nlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in geli\u015ftirilen “dalga boyu”, geleneksel y\u00f6ntemlere g\u00f6re daha sade tasarlan\u0131rken, model, ilk versiyonunda kullan\u0131lmayan “ilk vakadan itibaren ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre”, “insani geli\u015fme”, “n\u00fcfus yo\u011funlu\u011fu” gibi ek de\u011fi\u015fkenlerle geni\u015fletildi.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00f6nleriyle dalga boyu modeli, salg\u0131n\u0131n mevcut durumunu etkili ve kolay bir \u015fekilde ortaya koyabilen bir tasar\u0131m olarak dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, salg\u0131n\u0131n epidemiyolojik dalga boyu, k\u00fcm\u00fclatif do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f Kovid-19 vakalar\u0131na dayal\u0131 olarak OECD \u00fclkeleri ba\u011flam\u0131nda tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrk bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi yeni y\u00f6ntemle edinilen bulgulara g\u00f6re, OECD \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7erisinde 2020, 2021 ve 2022 d\u00f6nemlerinde en y\u00fcksek epidemiyolojik dalga boyuna sahip \u00fclke ABD, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fclke ise Avustralya oldu. 2022’de T\u00fcrkiye, dalga boyu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler i\u00e7erisinde 7. s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kovid-19’un d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 2020’de de salg\u0131n\u0131 en a\u011f\u0131r \u015fekilde ya\u015fayan \u00fclke ABD, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck salg\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne sahip \u00fclke Avustralya olurken, salg\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkeler \u0130talya ve Almanya olarak s\u0131raland\u0131.<\/p>\n
En y\u00fcksek dalga boyuna sahip ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin puanlar\u0131 OECD ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2020’de OECD ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 ise 15 oldu. T\u00fcrkiye ise salg\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan OECD \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7erisinde 7. s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin 2021’e ait dalga boylar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclke s\u0131ras\u0131yla ABD, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa, dalga boyunun en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclke ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla Avustralya, Yeni Zelanda ve \u0130zlanda olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n
OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda 2022’de salg\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclke s\u0131ras\u0131yla ABD, Almanya ve Fransa, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclke ise Avustralya, \u0130zlanda ve Kanada olarak tespit edildi.<\/p>\n
OECD ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda puan alan \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 17, ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 ise 20 oldu. OECD dalga boyu ortalamalar\u0131 y\u0131llara g\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalga boyunun en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu y\u0131l 2022 olarak tespit edildi.<\/p>\n
Dalga boyu modelinden elde edilen bulgular \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, t\u00fcm d\u00f6nemlerde salg\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclke ABD oldu. Bunun sebebi olarak ABD’nin Kovid-19’a yan\u0131t vermede federal d\u00fczeyde yetersiz kalmas\u0131na ve \u00fclkedeki sa\u011fl\u0131k sisteminin par\u00e7al\u0131 do\u011fas\u0131na i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan t\u00fcm d\u00f6nemlerde salg\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclke ise Avustralya olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti. Dalga boyu y\u00f6ntemine g\u00f6re bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck nedenlerinden birinin OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kilometre ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen n\u00fcfus yo\u011funlu\u011funun en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu \u00fclkenin Avustralya olmas\u0131na vurgu yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bunun yan\u0131nda Avustralya’da salg\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131nda ulusal d\u00fczeyde kamu politikas\u0131, y\u00f6nergeler ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n iyi koordine edilmesinin dalga boyunun d\u00fc\u015fmesindeki etkisine dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Yeni y\u00f6ntemin Kovid-19 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere salg\u0131nlarla ilgili gelecekte yap\u0131lacak ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Epidemiyolojik dalga boyu modeliyle \u00fclke veya b\u00f6lgelerde ilk Kovid-19 vakas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00fcnden itibaren hem g\u00fcnl\u00fck hem de k\u00fcm\u00fclatif dalga boylar\u0131 ortaya konularak salg\u0131n s\u00fcrecinin pratik \u015fekilde daha yak\u0131ndan takip edilece\u011fi belirtildi. Bu sayede karar vericilerin, salg\u0131n s\u00fcrecinin geli\u015fimini daha iyi y\u00f6neterek daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha g\u00fcvenilir kararlar alabilece\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n