<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 bir akademik i\u015fbirli\u011fi olan World Weather Attribution (WWA) b\u00fcnyesinde, \u0130ngiltere, \u0130ran, Hollanda ve ABD’deki \u00fcniversite ve meteoroloji kurumlar\u0131ndan 10 bilim insan\u0131, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin Suriye, Irak ve \u0130ran’daki kurakl\u0131k \u00fczerindeki etkisini inceledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130li\u015fkilendirme analizi, Temmuz 2020-Haziran 2023 d\u00f6nemlerinde kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n en \u015fiddetli g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u0130ran ve Dicle-F\u0131rat havzas\u0131ndaki \u015fartlar incelenerek yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analize g\u00f6re, ABD Kurakl\u0131k Monit\u00f6r\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan “\u015fiddetli” olarak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lan bu \u00fclkelerdeki kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hali haz\u0131rda 1,2 dereceye ula\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 tespit edildi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n 1,2 derece daha serin olmas\u0131 halinde s\u00f6z konusu kurakl\u0131k ko\u015fullar\u0131, “normal” olarak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek s\u0131cakl\u0131klar nedeniyle Suriye ve Irak’ta kurakl\u0131k 25 kat daha olas\u0131 hale gelirken, \u0130ran’da bu ihtimal 16 kat olarak hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analize g\u00f6re, Suriye, Irak ve \u0130ran’da 2020’den beri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve \u0131srarc\u0131 s\u0131cakl\u0131k, bu\u011fday tar\u0131m\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan b\u00f6lgede \u015fiddetli kurakl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eiddetli kurakl\u0131k, Eyl\u00fcl 2022’den beri Suriye’nin k\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelerinde ya\u015fayan yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyon insan\u0131 yerinden ederken, bu y\u0131l Suriye’de n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 60’\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan 12 milyon insan\u0131n g\u0131da g\u00fcvensizli\u011fi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eiddetli kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n neredeyse her \u015fehri vurdu\u011fu \u0130ran’da, su k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle gerilimin artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131, zay\u0131f hasat ko\u015fullar\u0131 da \u00fclkede g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu. Irak’ta da yayg\u0131n olan su g\u00fcvensizli\u011fi, \u00fclkenin baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde su konusunda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7 \u00fclkede de kurakl\u0131k; orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131, hava kirlili\u011fi, kolera gibi hastal\u0131klar\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bal\u0131k\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7imlerini sa\u011flad\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6l ve nehirleri terk etmesi gibi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furdu.<\/p>\n
Bilim insanlar\u0131, insan faaliyetlerinden kaynaklanan k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n bir sonucu olarak, uzun s\u00fcreli \u015fiddetli kurakl\u0131klar\u0131n art\u0131k nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen olaylar olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Suriye ve Irak’ta en az her on y\u0131lda bir, \u0130ran’da ise her on y\u0131lda iki kez meydana gelmesinin beklenebilece\u011fini hesaplad\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sanayi \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re 2 dereceye ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde, benzer kurakl\u0131k ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu andakine g\u00f6re en az iki kat daha fazla olma riski bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tahminlerin muhafazakar oldu\u011funu bildiren bilim insanlar\u0131, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha fazla olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Analizde ayr\u0131ca, b\u00f6lgede y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n halk\u0131n kurakl\u0131kla m\u00fccadelesini zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve durumun insani bir felakete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tespit edildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Semnan \u00dcniversitesinde g\u00f6revli Klimatolog Mohammed Rahimi, s\u00f6z konusu \u00fclkelerdeki kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n “a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olay\u0131” oldu\u011funu belirterek, “\u0130nsan faaliyetlerinin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi on milyonlarca insan\u0131n hayat\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.” ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Imperial College London Grantham Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc K\u0131demli \u00d6\u011fretim G\u00f6revlisi Friederike Otto ise kurakl\u0131k tehdidinin t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmede bulundu:<\/p>\n
“\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, bat\u0131 Asya’da ya\u015fayan insanlar\u0131n hayat\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha zor hale getiriyor. Fosil yak\u0131tlar sayesinde refah sahibi olan \u00fclkeler daha s\u0131cak ve zor bir d\u00fcnyada adaptasyon \u00f6nlemleriyle daha konforlu ya\u015fayabilirken, sava\u015fla sars\u0131lan yoksul \u00fclkeler bu konfordan \u00e7ok mahrum. Bu durum, zengin \u00fclkelerdeki yoksul topluluklar i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Benzer kurakl\u0131k olaylar\u0131 fosil yak\u0131tlar kullan\u0131lmaya devam ettik\u00e7e daha \u015fiddetli hale gelecek. Bu ay sonu ba\u015flayacak BM \u0130klim Zirvesi COP28’de fosil yak\u0131tlardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f konusunda anla\u015fmazsa herkes kaybedecek. Daha fazla insan su k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle zorluk ya\u015fayacak, daha fazla \u00e7ift\u00e7i yerinden olacak ve daha fazla insan g\u0131da i\u00e7in daha fazla para \u00f6deyecek.”<\/p>\n